2026 Predictions

TLDR...

• AI Bubble bursts wide open
• We finally emerge from the oversized trend and return to form-fitting clothes
• American Heritage/Prep returns in a big way – think Ralph Lauren / Brooks Brothers 
• The defense tech influence – companies move away from virtue signaling and the performative language/posture that has dominated the last 10 years

AI Reckoning 

The AI bubble will become clearly visible in 2026, and the inevitable IMPLOSION will officially begin! The surge in AI investments and INSANE valuations has outpaced real-world deliverables. Most companies can agree... There has been a lot of experimentation, but relatively little quantifiable impact. The result is disillusionment. 2026 will likely be the year when enough enterprise AI pilots will have reached the renewal or cancellation stage. Investors and boards will begin to demand unit economics, not narratives. 

What happens next?

I don't think it's a big public crash. 

First, renewals quietly fail. In 2025, enterprises were largely experimenting and piloting AI. In 2026, those contracts come up for renewal. Boards stop asking “Are we using AI?” and start asking... “What did it replace? “Are we saving money?” “Are we more efficient?" Copilots and agents that sounded impressive but did not eliminate headcount, reduce spend, or materially change cycle time get cut. This is the first leak in the hull, and it won't make headlines.

Many startups have down rounds and silently shut down. They won't fail publicly. They will merge, pivot, acqui-hires etc.. We will stop seeing these MASSIVE rounds of investment. The valuations will reset. And we will all return to reality.

During all of this, credibility begins to fracture. Conflicting outputs, hallucinations, and governance failures move from edge cases to board-level concerns. Trust dwindles. 

The market quickly moves away from "AI First" language. 

Finally, capital consolidates. Spend is consolidating into a small number of platforms. Everyone else is squeezed. This looks less like a pop and more like the established players reasserting themselves. There will be a very small handful of startup winners, but for the most part, the big companies win again. 

American Heritage!

AMERICAN HERITAGE is back in a BIG way. Suddenly, everyone is cosplaying WASP and prep is back. We finally emerge from this oversized trend. We see waistlines again. Pants are straight-leg. Ties come back into the mainstream. A return to formality and form-fitting clothing (praise be to he!). It's cool to dress like a grown-up again! Ralph Lauren is the brand in 2026. HORSE POWER!

The End of Neutral!

This past year, defense technology moved from a fringe category to mainstream, with record venture funding flowing into startups developing next-generation military and national security technologies. Startups like Anduril, Shield AI, and Palantir became household names (for households following this type of stuff at least)... They looked and behaved more like consumer brands – they had merch, cool websites, and founders with big personalities. 

The rise of defense technology reflects more than just venture capital chasing a new category. I believe it mirrors a deeper cultural shift away from the liberal ideal of consensus and neutrality toward a worldview that embraces purposeful power, decisiveness, and things that actually work. In 2026, more companies will quietly drop the performative language and virtue signaling that defined the last decade. The empathy statements, purpose decks, and neutral-sounding fluff give way to clearer positioning and a more direct explanation of what a company actually does and why it matters. 

At the same time, in 2026, you’ll see more startups outside defense adopt defense-adjacent aesthetics. Hard edges. Monochrome palettes. Utilitarian typography. Fewer gradients and smiles, more schematics and systems. The huggy, cartoony shit (the new, but equally shitty version of corporate memphis) that has dominated the last 5-10 years of design is officially out. We see design language becoming a proxy for seriousness (whereas in the past, a lot of corporate design language has veered more towards friendly, open, inclusive, etc.).

A few more predictions...

• Google is the biggest winner of 2026 (AI, Waymo, YouTube)
• Apple buys something (maybe perplexity) and the foldable phone is a hit 
• Midterms are insane. Both sides are convinced the other side is cheating
• I wrote about this last year, but still relevant this year... phone bans
• Big tech turns on Trump (happens really fast)
• Aliens... I'm not gonna say much more, just aliens
• The prediction markets... something is gonna happen with Kalshi
• Vice signaling/Mad Men aesthetic resurgence (cigs, ties, booze)